The TRUC conceptual framework will build on work exploring risk, resilience and transformation developed by Pelling (2011) and Solecki (with Leichenko 2006), including a major review: Megacities and the Coast: Risk, Resilience and Transformation, undertaken for the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme by Pelling (Pelling and Blackburn 2013). WP1 will also engage with a mushrooming of recent research on resilience and transformation from social-ecological systems theory, transition theory, and political ecology (e.g. Walker et al. 2004; Ostrom 2009; Carpenter and Scheffer 2009; Scheffer et al. 2009; Anderies and Janssen 2011; Lenton 2011). We consider transformation as a process of change from one mode of organization, or value system, to another: e.g. from an export trade oriented port city to an industrial city. Transitions are shifts in the equilibrium condition of a specific system, but fall short of systems breaching transformation.
To model the interaction of human decisions and the biophysical environment in coastal cities, TRUC will employ SUEWS, a simple biophysical model for urban surface-atmosphere energy and water exchanges (Järvi et al. 2011), capable of predicting heat stress, boundary layer height (critical for dispersion and air quality) and flooding for neighbourhoods across urban areas. SUEWS can be run for events or multi-year time periods and can be used to investigate the effects of the behaviours of individuals (e.g. energy or water use) and institutions (e.g. neighbourhood planning, traffic controls, building materials). The model can be run in grid format or use administrative units (e.g. census tracks). This will allow the effects of a wide range of decisions and environmental issues to be investigated, one-by-one and in combination.
WP3 will work closely with WP2 to extend the WRI methodology developed by UNU-EHS. The WRI approach (see Table 1) has been applied with a national resolution (see UNU 2011 and 2012). TRUC provides an opportunity to apply the index concept to the local level (ie. micro-census tract) across megacity areas. Modification at the level of indicators and measurements will reflect the local and urban focus.
The integrated methodology developed in WP1-3 will be applied in six megacities to:
To refine the TRUC conceptual framework and methodological components in light of empirical experience.
The details of engagement, dissemination and impact planning are presented in Section 12. The importance of impact, engagement and dissemination is signified in TRUC’s Communication and Impact Committee (CIC), chaired by Ramachandran and reporting to the Scientific Steering Committee Group. All PIs have dedicated resource for engagement and communication with Ramachandran and Yamamoto requiring additional resource to lead communication in English and Japanese.
The details of project management are presented in Section 11.